As the Wuhan virus epidemic is still developing and only in its second month, researchers say it is difficult to determine the severity and mortality rate of the virus, which the scientific community has codenamed 2019-nCoV.

However, a study of initial cases by a group of Hong Kong scientists found that the risk of death among those who became severely ill enough to require hospitalisation – or hospital fatality risk – may be around 14 per cent.

The scientists based their calculations on an initial group of 29 severely ill patients in Wuhan who needed hospitalisation, four of whom eventually died.

The group, from the World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control at the School of Public Health, University of Hong Kong, added that there were still uncertainties surrounding this estimate and that more information was needed.

Their findings, one of the first to be published on the Wuhan virus, appeared last Thursday in the medical journal Eurosurveillance.

COMPARED TO SARS:

In Singapore, Sars sickened in total 238 people, killing 33 of them, or 14 per cent.

Hong Kong took a particularly bad hit from Sars, which infected 1,755 people and killed 299 of them – translating to a mortality rate of 17 per cent.

Sars lasted a total of around nine months. Its first case was detected in China’s southern Guangdong province in November 2002 and the global outbreak was declared contained in July 2003.

MERS:

Less well known but more deadly is Mers, which has a far higher mortality rate of 35 per cent.

A total of 2,494 people were infected and 858 of them died. Three years after it was first detected in 2012, it turned up in South Korea, killing 38 people.

By the time the Hong Kong researchers published their Wuhan virus paper, they found that two out of four mildly-infected people who had turned up outside China had no exposure to the wet markets in Wuhan, indicating that there might be a larger number of mild and undetected infections in Wuhan.

Fifteen healthcare workers, with no exposure to the wet markets but who tended to the sick and later became infected, also appear to indicate sustained human-to-human transmission of the virus.

Professor Benjamin Cowling, one of the scientists in the group, said it was very difficult to establish the severity of the Wuhan virus at this stage because of the likelihood of many mild cases that are untested.

“It is very difficult to judge severity at this stage, but there appear to be a large number of mild infections and many of these would not be tested and confirmed,” Prof Cowling told The Straits Times.

He added a note of caution: “We believe there is more evidence now that infections are spreading from person to person, and that the outbreak is slowly growing.”

For both Sars and Mers, the risk of serious disease increases with age and the presence of underlying medical conditions.

This may also be the case with the Wuhan virus.

From information released by the Chinese authorities last week on 17 of the earliest deaths, almost half of them were aged 80 or above, and most of them had pre-existing health problems, like cirrhosis of the liver, hypertension, diabetes and Parkinson’s disease.

Out of the 17, 13 were men.

For now, one of the most urgent priorities is to determine the degree at which this virus is being transmitted from human to human, the researchers said.

The other is to identify the animal reservoir of the Wuhan virus and whether there is any intermediary host.

This is important because it will help ringfence the disease and prevent it in future.

Among the first 41 confirmed cases of the Wuhan virus, 70 per cent of them had exposure to the wet animal market, according to the Hong Kong research team.

So far, there are reports of the Wuhan virus possibly being linked to bats, snakes, bamboo rats or badgers.

Bats are said to be natural reservoirs of both the Sars and Mers viruses, although the intermediate host of Sars is believed to be the civet cat, while camels have also been found to be a likely source for Mers.

With the epidemic developing quickly and the infection and death toll rising, much needs to be done to bring the situation under control.

Meanwhile, stay vigilant and practise good personal hygiene, everyone!

Read Next

8 Easy At-Home Health Checks That Can Save Your Life

Covid-19: How To Protect Yourself & Loved Ones From Falling Sick This Season

10 Ways To Boost Your Immunity So You Don't Fall Sick Easily

Text: Tan Ee Lyn/The Straits Times